I know its been a lot of fun and a whole lot of theatre and Drama and Hot Air, but today I decided to leave the fantasy land of Trump and the fiction and speculation over Murdoch aside and actually concentrate on the really important people, the people who will be voting on the Independence Referendum, the Scottish voting populace.
I agree with Trump in one respect, I never place a lot of trust in polls. I find them useful for watching the direction of trends, but rarely place any more faith in them than that.
Ipos Mori did come out with a poll on the 29th of February which in their subsequent analysis of it, suggests according to them that Economic optimism falls when Scots consider independence. Now, given that this poll was published at the end of February, with marginal growth being claimed at that time, I am not so sure that they would have received the same responses today, given the recent news that the UK is back in recession. A week is a long time in politics, two months can appear like a ancient history.
But lets examine some of what they said and concluded about that poll.
“The prospect of Scotland becoming an independent country leaves the public feeling less optimistic about their personal financial situation and about economic conditions in Scotland, according to our latest poll in the Times.”
“At the beginning of the survey, we asked respondents about a range of personal and national economic issues and whether they thought they would improve, stay the same or get worse in the next five next years. At the end of the survey we asked respondents what would happen to the same measures if Scotland were to become an independent country. On each measure, optimism fell and pessimism grew once the concept of independence was introduced.”
“Analysis of the figures illustrates the extent of that challenge. When we consider the views of those who currently oppose independence we can see overwhelmingly pessimistic views to the consequences of independence. Among this group the net rating for personal finances falls from -4% in the next five years to -58% if Scotland were independent. Similar rises in pessimism can be seen when this group is asked about job security (from -5% to -45%) and economic conditions in Scotland (from -18% to -76%).
Mark Diffley, Research Director at Ipsos MORI Scotland said: “We know that economic issues are likely to dominate the forthcoming debates over Scotland’s constitutional future. Our latest data shows that levels of economic optimism fall when the public consider the prospect of Scotland becoming independent. This pessimism is particularly evident among those with mortgages living in affluent areas who currently appear more nervous about the economic consequences of independence. It highlights the challenges ahead, especially for supporters of independence, in convincing voters that individuals and the country would be better off in an independent Scotland.”
The actual polling took place by telephone between the 27th and 29th January, the sample size was 1005.
So what does it actually appear to tell us?
Firstly, it tells us that there is still a lot of hard work to be done to convince the undecided and some of those marginally in favour of the status quo that Independence will be a good thing for them.
It tells us that there is a high degree of pessimism and fear amongst the more affluent in Society than there is amongst the poorer in society.
The pollsters suggest that fear of losing jobs and the weight of worry over mortgages and the potential loss of lifestyle and homes is foremost in these peoples minds.
They are easier prey for the permanently negative Unionists.
This actually correlates quite nicely with previous social group voting intentions for the SNP.
For some time now the SNP and also Independence has been much more favoured by the poorest in Society, those who would previously have been marked down as natural Labour voters.
The easist and indeed laziest assumption would be that the poorest have nothing left to lose by the prospect of Independence, and It can only be better, more so with the Conservative/Lib Dem ideological attack under the guise of austerity measures with this coalition.
The more affluent have conversely the most to lose, so require much more assurance that Independence will be beneficial rather than detrimental to them.
In effect, the Economic argument will be the deciding factor for many of them, and it needs to be better than we have the Oil!
Once you remove the die hard Unionists out of the equation, which Include the brainwashed of Irish protestant Unionists on one hand, and the party apparatchiks and tribal supporters of The Labour and Conservative political unionists on the other, we are left with the undecided who are of still considerable number.
These are the ones who need to be won over.
It may be great fun baiting unionists on newspaper comment boards, but it actually achieves very little, they are fixed and unmovable in their opinion and will just continue spreading the lies of their masters.
It may bring solace to chat amongst ourselves on like minded blogs and social network groups, but that only serves to give a false impression of actual support for independence and is a comfort zone.
Where we really need to engage is in our communities, in our work places, in pubs and clubs, in the interactions and events of our everyday lives.
There is no need to actually canvas, we just need to discuss what we see around us. We can trash the usual drivel that the BBC produces, we can talk of what Westminster is bringing next to our everyday lives, we can talk literally about anything, but never allow ourselves to lose the rag when presented with ignorant opinion.
Stay calm, be relaxed and confident, and dont allow ourselves to rise to the negative baiting.
The one who keeps the cool in an argument always wins.
When you look at the type of papers someone reads, you get an idea of what they are fed.
The affluent in society are more likely to read the Guardian, The Times, The Telegraph, The Scotsman, and the Herald. They will be fed these views and apart from the Sunday Herald which changed tack earlier this year, its sister paper and the others are Unionist opinion formers.
The tabloids are either the Record, The Sun, and to a lesser extent the Express and the Mail. The biggest selling by a long way in Scotland is now the Sun, hence why the outrage and attacks of the Unionists on Murdoch and Salmonds relationship.
Similar attacks have been made against STV for seemingly giving the SNP an easy time of it, which perhaps had something to do with its combined attacks on Scotland Tonight recently?
The BBC is the BBC, and we know exactly what to expect of them, and it is worth telling everybody on a regular basis about their bias.
There is a long way to go, and there is a lot still to do, but we are winning as long as the Economic argument is properly made, and in a detailed fashion by current the Scottish Government.
At the end of the day …..Its the Economic argument which will be the ultimate deciding factor.
Onwards and Upwards to Independence.