The SNP do not have a mandate to call another Independence referendum, and should not even consider doing so! The reason that they don’t have a mandate to call one is quite simply because they have lost their majority in the Scottish parliament.
Even if they wanted to call one, they will not be allowed to do so!
Such are the sort of arguments that the Torys are trying make now.
Although Michael Fallon said that the SNP would not be allowed to call another referendum, as they would absolutely be refused permission by the Westminster government, he was very quick to do a smart u turn on that the following day.
I suspect the reason for the sharp volte face was because he probably got a roasting from No.10 and the Scottish Torys. Theresa May has always been extremely careful to say that she believes the SNP should not call another referendum, not that they could not call one. Both she and the Scottish Torys know fine well that to attempt to deny Scots sovereignty in that manner is a sure fire way of ensuring Independence.
The question being though is whether or not that was a deliberate blunder by Michael Fallon, in order to test the reaction it would receive, or as a means of leaving the idea hanging with those Scots less politically aware that Westminster did not have the authority to deny a Scots referendum?
As for their weak assertion that the SNP do not have a mandate because they no longer have the majority in the Scottish parliament….that roundly fails on 2 counts. The parliament was set up in such a way as to supposedly make it impossible for any party to have an overall majority . The fact that the SNP fell just short of repeating the remarkable feat they last achieved is neither here nor there. Also there is a mandate because jointly the SNP and the Scottish Green Party are both for independence and jointly they do have a majority.
What all of this means is that the unionist partys are running scared!
They know fine well that Indyref2 is almost certainly going to happen. It is not a matter of If it will happen, but rather When it will happen.
The example given of a material breach in the SNP Holyrood manifesto was that of Scotland being taken out of the EU against the explicit will of the Scottish people.
Given that we were all told categorically by the NO campaign that only by voting against Independence would we be guaranteed to stay in the EU.
So that material breach will be the trigger once Article 50 is implemented by Westminster.
However it can be argued that the removal from the EU is not the only material breach given the Vow and nearly every other promise made by Better Together has been broken.
It is at this point that I would urge the SNP and all YES campaigners to be extremely cautious.
While the trigger may be the EU, and while Westminster, the Press and the BBC will most certainly focus on a sort of rerunning of Brexit arguments and old rehashed scare stories and impossible questions. We cannot simply sit back and let them run the agenda like we did before. Nor can we center the argument ourselves solely around the question of the EU. If we allow ourselves like the old official YES campaign did, in merely responding ever so politely on the back foot to make our case, we shall assuredly lose again….and that we cannot allow ourselves to do.
The EU is merely one issue, but it is not such an issue that will excite the majority of Scots. It has a prominence for the moment because of Brexit, but it is not a main reason in itself for Independence. Given that the EU elections have been by far the poorest turn outs of all our elections,and given that most Scots were until recently blissfully unaware of whatever MEPs were supposed to do, and I suspect many still do not know. While it may be the trigger, it cannot be allowed to be the sole focus of the argument to come.
We can see that even at this early stage, in the media and on social media the constant bombardment and belittling and fault finding of everything Scotland and Scottish, and this will only be ramped up once the phony war is over. We cannot allow rhe BBC to tell us what the big agenda is in political debating programmes… we have to turn that around, and unless we have proper equal representation on these programmes and be allowed to put our own questions, then we should refuse to take part!
We have to be absolutely clear why we want Independence, and what we hope to achieve by it, and not have it be some watered down version of the British state
Instead of us answering and rebutting a multitude of questions…. We should be taking it to the them…and asking them to justify clearly what benefit the Union is to us now, and why they think subjugation is better than Independence?
Time to get off the back foot, and bring Independence home.