When Polls don’t work

I am always sceptical about polls, and for very good reasons.
They can be fun, they can be informative to an extent, but are open to manipulation depending on what questions are asked, who they are asked of, and how questions are asked.
There are companies who make a pretty good living out of asking peoples opinions on all sorts of things from what foods people like to buy, to political polls on how people intend to vote.
The political pollsters such as YouGov, PanelBase, Ipsos Mori etc will use different methods of polling. Some use face to face polling, some telephone and some online polling. Preferably 1000 people are asked, and the responses weighted according to age,sex, previous political voting, and status.
Some people who have registered as willing to respond to polling will be asked on numerous occasions for their opinion. Some people may never have their opinion sought at all, namely those who are not on the internet or on the phone.

While such polling has proved to be relatively reliable in the past, there have been occasions particularly in recent times that they have got it disastrously wrong!
A week before the Scottish Independence referendum it was reported that YES had taken the lead..a few days later the opposite happened.
The Leave campaign was thought to be losing the Brexit vote, and yet it won.
Trump was never supposed to win the presidency, and was behind Clinton all the way.

So when I continually see polls telling us that Scots are not any more, or not much more likely to support Independence than they were back in 2014, I regard such polling with extreme skepticism. Particularly so when SNP sent nearly every Scottish MP to Westminster, and still with the Greens are in the majority  in favour of Independence in Holyrood.
Nor can i see how support for Independence should not have grown significantly in the face of a Draconian Isolationist Tory government and Brexit where 62% of Scots voted against leaving the EU.

Yet these pollsters all tell us that little to no movement has been made in support of Independence? I just do not buy it!

Couple this with the council voting intention polling done by Panel Base for Wings over Scotland.
It says that in favour  SNP: 47%
Conservatives: 26%
Labour: 14%
Lib Dems: 5%
Greens: 4%
UKIP 3%

If that lot was accurate and transferable according to Independence supporting partys then those in favour of Independence would amount to 51% and those opposed to 48%

The rub is though that not all who support SNP at elections do so because of Independence, but rather more trusted governance, and not all who are Torys, Labour and Libdems are opposed to Independence.

What we can tell from this though, is that support is being polarised. The massive downturn in Labour support coincides with ultra unionists switching to the Torys and a tiny minority moving to UKIP who have gone from 0% to 3% .

Increasingly as Labour flounders around like a dying fish deprived of water, we are coming down to a polarised head to head in the battle for Scottish opinion and Independence.
It is a straight fight between YES and the Torys.

The other kind of poll is a biased poll.. Now there can be many reasons for bias, and generally those that are supportive of one outcome over another will make their views known in order to sway how their poll turns out. These types of polls are also limited to the reach and constituency the poll has.. Typical of this type are newspaper polls for their readership.
A perfect example of this type is the Daily Records recent poll which was included in a page which gave in no uncertain terms the editors preference on how that poll should turn out in the Record View..

SNP can’t answer crucial questions as they beat drum for second independence referendum

There are two big problems behind the SNP’s proposal for a referendum in 2018, says Record View.

The SNP drumbeat for a second referendum is getting louder with each passing day.

Many voters across the UK see indyref2 and a move to independence as inevitable.

The SNP  want to present a referendum in 2018 as a choice between two uncertain, risky futures – one in a UK outside the European Union and one in an independent Scotland facing the world on its own and knocking at the door to get back into the EU.

NOTE THAT THE EDITORIAL PRESENTS AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND AS BEING RISKY AND ISOLATED FROM THE WORLD…TOTALLY CONTRARY TO THE VIEWS BEING EXPRESSED BY THE EUs CHIEF NEGOTIATOR.

But there are problems with this – the first being the delusional proposition, put forward by Alex Salmond that it is the terms of trade with Europe, rather than the currency we would trade in, that is important.

Delusional?? Surely the fact that we can trade takes priority over what currency we use for trade? If we can’t trade then it doesn’t matter what currency we use, it may as well be jelly beans..or the pound considering how that is going!

The currency question still looms large for the Nationalists. Pretending the problem doesn’t exist won’t make it go away.

Then there is the hard economic question of which is more important – trade with the UK, which is worth several times more than that with the rest of the EU, or the hope, and it is no better than that, that better terms can be struck with Brussels on behalf of Scotland.

That raises the question of what the SNP would be willing to concede to the EU, because European politics is transactional more than political, although, of course, loaded with political consequences.

Again utter nonsense from the editor..
Whilst the figures show that 4x as much of Scotlands goods go to the UK, these figures do not show how much of that is in transit ongoing to the EU and the Rest of the World from English ports rather than going direct.
Nor does making trade an either/ or matter make any relevance.
Nor does it take into account that the rUK trades more to Scotland than Scotland to the rUK…and are they seriously trying to suggest that Scotland in the EU or on in EEA would not be done business with? Total Bunkum.
They also paint negotiations between Scotland and the EU as being only one way, all Scotland conceding with nothing in return. Again ignoring completely that the EU would very much want Scotlands contribution and access to our substantial resources.

Only then after all that negativity do they introduce their poll:
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN A SECOND REFERENDUM?

The last time I looked today… 71% voted for YES
and …..29% voted for NO

OH DEAR..OH MY….WHAT A SHAME!

But does that mean anything to me? Not really
It just shows that over the 1000 who have voted in their poll so far the vast majority were Independence supporters.
The only really worthwhile polls are the ones in which we actually go to the ballot box in.

And so with that in mind…. If you want Independence, If you want your party representatives to be likewise….Get off your bahookies and make dam sure you go ans vote! Vote for only parties who are in support of independence, and n0t even 4th 5th 6th choices in favour of anyone else! Just don’t enter these!

Lets make bloomin sure that Labour and Torys cant pauchle things so that they run our councils!

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About auldacquaintance

I am not a member of any political party. I am however a strong supporter of Scots Independence. Any views which I express in this Blog are purely my own. This Blog intends to be a place where I will be putting my views on Scots Independence. It will primarily concern itself with the upcoming Referendum In Scotland. However It will also be somewhat diverse in the range of day to day issues which are evident to me in modern day Scotland. Not all of it will be political, and indeed may take me off into avenues I am not even aware of yet. Please come and join in on this journey, and any comments are welcome provided they are not abusive! All the best from a new acquaintance! Rod
This entry was posted in Brexit, EU, Europe, independence, politics, scotland, Wings over Scotland, YES and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to When Polls don’t work

  1. Reblogged this on charlesobrien08 and commented:
    Another bit of clear thinking.

  2. Kangaroo says:

    Thats it in a nutshell. With STV vote only for independence candidates leave everything else BLANK.

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