Both votes SNP or not? That is the question.

It is not the first time that the Both votes SNP has been questioned, and no doubt the argument for and against will rage on indefinitely until such times as either the voting system changes or we get Independence.
Personally In my opinion it doesn’t stand water.
I can see why the SNP leadership pursue it, but I doubt their reasons have anything to do with gaining Independence. Being a political party, they are behaving the way that all other political parties normally behave, that is because they don’t want you voting for anyone else but themselves, irrespective if that stance hinders Independence or not.
Now this is something I would never have considered or even entertained a couple of years ago,but given how antagonistic some in the leadership has been towards anyone who might think differently to themselves has been, I have begun to believe that is the case.

Back in 2016 this argument was very much in evidence too, only at that time it was the greens arguing against the SNP both votes position by saying that the Greens should have the List vote. Oddly enough we don’t see that particular argument being pursued vigorously by the Greens now, nor do we see them being attacked on it by the SNP support on Social media either.Now I wonder why this might be? Given how buddy buddy the SNP and the Greens have become recently on some very contentious policies, and how the Greens were asked in the media recently about going into coalition with the SNP if the SNP failed to get a majority, that seems like a PR initiative to flag up an idea to see what reaction would be like in the public.
I also noted with a fair degree of disbelief the social media SNP civil war that seemed to be taking place between MPs and MSPs and other party representatives over the Trans rights self ID/Womens Right issue in the lead up to an election. I noted Nicola Sturgeon publicly pleading for some not to leave the SNP, while on the other hand doing nothing to prevent the attacks on Johanna Cherry. It seemed to me that this clear schism developing in the SNP was at least partially due to a move away from campaigning and working towards Independence and focussing instead on pet issues of the Leadership. Even the election material used makes it unclear how much they want to pursue Independence. The bottom corner of the leaflet which is easily overlooked is the only part where an Independence referendum is mentioned. It is almost as if they are ashamed to mention it.

When we look at the headlines of their manifesto document, an Independence referendum doesn’t make their policy objectives till number 5 on the list and when it does….In Bold Print “Choose Scotlands future in an Independence Referendum” in light print “after the Covid crisis is over” Now that doesn’t seem to me to be of much urgency, the Covid Crisis fall out could carry on for years yet.

The Greens on the other hand rarely talk all that much about Independence, and In my view are fair weather friends who are making the most of its popularity, and to be fair to them, Independence is not of their prime concern, their prime concern is environmental issues, and if supporting Independence gives them a chance of better parliamentary representation why not?

On the BBC Sunday show today Lorna Slater the Green Co leader said ” This manifesto for a fair and green recovery from the pandemic,it is not a manifesto for independence”

When asked by the host “The SNP will use your block to argue that there is a pro Independence majority, what I am asking you is on balance if many of your supporters don’t support Independence, is it not disingenuous to lend their votes to that Independence argument?”

She replied ” This isn’t a manifesto for Independence, its a manifesto to ask the people of Scotland and feel that unionists should have a right to defend the union so if we have green voters who feel that the union is the right way forward lets put it to the Scottish people”

Yet the SNP and many of its supporters on social media at least are more intent on fighting with a new party whose primary goal is Independence for Scotland but you never hear them say a word against the Greens now, even when the Greens actually do threaten the number of seats the SNP might win by standing in opposition to the SNP in 12 constituencies. The Alba party on the other hand cannot detract seats from the SNP on the List, namely because the SNP are unlikely to win any. The SNPs only hopes of List seats are a possible 1 in the Highlands and 3 in the South of Scotland. Unless of course the SNP suddenly lose out massively in constituency seats, but not even the most pessimistic person ever can envisage that scenario happening at this moment in time.

It is true that up to a certain point in time both seats SNP was absolutely the way to go, but that was all prior to 2011. Now it is absolutely not the way to go if you want more representation in parliament from an Independence perspective. I guess it is more comfortable for the SNP not to have another pro Independence party in parliament who will push and challenge them to be bold on Independence, and more comfortable for them to face a weary Unionist opposition that they can deal with easily.


So lets look at the evidence as to whether or not SNP Both votes is likely to work, or whether it is more likely to allow more Torys and Labour in?
It’s quite easy to do on a rough rule of thumb looking at previous Holyrood elections. In short the more constituency seats a party has, the less List seats they will get.


Back in 2003 Labour had 46 constituency seats and gained 4 List seats. The Tories had 3 constituency seats and gained 15 List seats. The SNP had 9 constituency seats and gained 18 List seats. So back then, yes both votes SNP would work.
The SSP had no constituency seats but gained 6 List seats on 6.7% of the vote. The Greens had 7 List seats on 6.9% of the vote.

Onto 2007…. Labour had 37 constituency seats and 9 List seats, so drop in constituency from 2003 but a gain of List seats.
The Tories had 4 constituency seats and 13 List seats, a gain of one constituency but a loss of 2 List from 2003
The SNP had 21 constituency seats and 26 List seats, a gain in both constituency and List seats but also a massive uplift in voter share pushing Labour extremely close in almost all constituencies , so SNP both votes worked well here.

Margo MacDonald won a List seat on a mere 0.9% vote share.


Now 2011, the year SNP broke the system and gained a majority against all odds.

SNP won 53 constituency seats and 16 List seats, a big rise in the constituency but a drop of 10 List seats from the previous election.
Labour won 15 constituency seats and 22 List seats, so a drop in constituency seats for them balanced out by a rise of 13 List seats
Tories won 3 constituency seats and 12 List seats
This was the last year that both votes SNP worked.


Onto 2016

SNP increased both constituency seats and vote share winning 59 constituency seats and 4 List seats, gaining 6 more constituency seats but balanced by losing 12 List seats from 2011 . All in all a drop of 22 List seats from 2007…. Both votes SNP was disastrous from an Independence point of view , nearly1million votes wasted for no return.


So the question remains, are you voting for a personality , or are you voting for a party, or are you voting for what will give Scotland more representation in parliament for Independence?

I know what I really want to see as soon as possible, a Scotland that is Independent